Excerpt from Coalescence Report 8th May - 14th May 2022
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Excerpt from Coalescence Report 8th May - 14th May 2022
Excerpt from the Weekly Coalescence Sentiment Report: 08/05/2022 - 14/05/2022
This report covers the weekly market sentiment and positioning and any changes that have occurred which might present interesting configurations on different asset classes with a specific focus on currencies. The below shows the table of contents of the report:
The COT Report
Introduction to the COT Report
EUR Currency
CHF Currency
GBP Currency
JPY Currency
CAD Currency
Interesting Cross Ideas
Historical Track Record
The Chaos Impact Index
Introduction to the Chaos Impact Index
EUR Currency
CHF Currency
GBP Currency
JPY Currency
CAD Currency
Gold
The White Index
Introduction to the White Index
S&P500
Historical Track Record
Vision
Introduction to Vision
S&P500
Historical Track Record
The VIX
Introduction to the VIX
S&P500
Historical Track Record
The Weekly S&P500 Sentiment Indicator
Introduction to the Weekly S&P500 Sentiment Indicator
S&P500
The Millennium Forecast
Introduction to the Millennium Forecast
ISM PMI
Historical Track Record
Bitcoin Tactical Sentiment Index
Introduction to the Bitcoin Tactical Sentiment Index
Bitcoin
Historical Track Record
Disclosure
2. The Chaos Impact Index
The Chaos Impact Index is a calculation based on many variables from different areas such as opinions, volatility, momentum, short-term flows, and psychological factors. Its name comes from the fact that it tries to find hidden patterns within the chaos of the elements it is comprised of.
The Chaos Impact Index is calculated on a daily basis but is part of a weekly document and therefore, if a signal occurs during the week, an email and a post would be sent with the market expectations post-signal. The index is presented as a binary event where it shows the market sentiment:
Whenever the market sentiment is bullish, the market is shown in green.
Whenever the market sentiment is bearish, the market is shown in red.
EUR Currency
The following signal chart shows the daily data since the beginning of 2022.
Commentary
The recent bullish sentiment candlesticks point out to a possible stabilization expected by market participants around the current levels.
3. The White Index
Long-only traders who like to time the dips and follow the upside trend should monitor the White Index as it has been specifically designed for this purpose.
The following signal chart shows the latest 1000 data with the signals.
Commentary
At the moment, the White Index is neutral and no signal is given. The White Index is calculated on a daily basis but is part of a weekly document and therefore, if a signal occurs during the week, an email and a post would be sent with the market expectation post-signal.
7. The Millennium Forecast
During the introductory post, you must have understood that the Millennium Forecast targets the long-term as opposed to other indicators.
The following Figure shows a window of the last number of observations of the ISM PMI with the signals generated by the Millennium Forecast. Refer to the commentary below to understand what to expect.
Remember that the two outputs of the Millennium Forecast are as follows:
Expansion: This label represents an economic non-linear expansion.
Contraction: This label represents an economic non-linear contraction.
8. Disclosure
Every information contained in the report is solely for the purpose of showing another angle. Since it is not investment advice nor a trade recommendation, you must not use the conclusion of the report as the sole reason for your trading and investing activities. Make sure you know how to include the above elements in your trading framework in a way that does not change your methodology.
Data can have many representations and the information presented is but one side which may be incomplete. All back-testing and forward testing results reflect their own time period and not the future.
The information contained in the report are proprietary and only you must use it. If you have to share it, please state the source correctly by referring the page of Coalescence.