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Excerpt from Coalescence Report 8th May - 14th May 2022

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Excerpt from Coalescence Report 8th May - 14th May 2022

Excerpt from the Weekly Coalescence Sentiment Report: 08/05/2022 - 14/05/2022

Sofien Kaabar, CFA
May 9, 2022
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Excerpt from Coalescence Report 8th May - 14th May 2022

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This report covers the weekly market sentiment and positioning and any changes that have occurred which might present interesting configurations on different asset classes with a specific focus on currencies. The below shows the table of contents of the report:

  1. The COT Report

    • Introduction to the COT Report

    • EUR Currency

    • CHF Currency

    • GBP Currency

    • JPY Currency

    • CAD Currency

    • Interesting Cross Ideas

    • Historical Track Record

  2. The Chaos Impact Index

    • Introduction to the Chaos Impact Index

    • EUR Currency

    • CHF Currency

    • GBP Currency

    • JPY Currency

    • CAD Currency

    • Gold

  3. The White Index

    • Introduction to the White Index

    • S&P500

    • Historical Track Record

  4. Vision

    • Introduction to Vision

    • S&P500

    • Historical Track Record

  5. The VIX

    • Introduction to the VIX

    • S&P500

    • Historical Track Record

  6. The Weekly S&P500 Sentiment Indicator

    • Introduction to the Weekly S&P500 Sentiment Indicator

    • S&P500

  7. The Millennium Forecast

    • Introduction to the Millennium Forecast

    • ISM PMI

    • Historical Track Record

  8. Bitcoin Tactical Sentiment Index

    • Introduction to the Bitcoin Tactical Sentiment Index

    • Bitcoin

    • Historical Track Record

  9. Disclosure

Access the Coalescence Report

2. The Chaos Impact Index

The Chaos Impact Index is a calculation based on many variables from different areas such as opinions, volatility, momentum, short-term flows, and psychological factors. Its name comes from the fact that it tries to find hidden patterns within the chaos of the elements it is comprised of.

The Chaos Impact Index is calculated on a daily basis but is part of a weekly document and therefore, if a signal occurs during the week, an email and a post would be sent with the market expectations post-signal. The index is presented as a binary event where it shows the market sentiment:

  • Whenever the market sentiment is bullish, the market is shown in green.

  • Whenever the market sentiment is bearish, the market is shown in red.

EUR Currency

The following signal chart shows the daily data since the beginning of 2022.

Market regime detection with the Chaos Impact Index.
Commentary

The recent bullish sentiment candlesticks point out to a possible stabilization expected by market participants around the current levels.

3. The White Index

Long-only traders who like to time the dips and follow the upside trend should monitor the White Index as it has been specifically designed for this purpose.

The following signal chart shows the latest 1000 data with the signals.

Signal chart.
Commentary

At the moment, the White Index is neutral and no signal is given. The White Index is calculated on a daily basis but is part of a weekly document and therefore, if a signal occurs during the week, an email and a post would be sent with the market expectation post-signal.

Access the Coalescence Report

7. The Millennium Forecast

During the introductory post, you must have understood that the Millennium Forecast targets the long-term as opposed to other indicators.

The following Figure shows a window of the last number of observations of the ISM PMI with the signals generated by the Millennium Forecast. Refer to the commentary below to understand what to expect.

ISM PMI with the Millennium Forecast model.
ISM PMI with the Millennium Forecast model.

Remember that the two outputs of the Millennium Forecast are as follows:

  • Expansion: This label represents an economic non-linear expansion.

  • Contraction: This label represents an economic non-linear contraction.

Access the Coalescence Report

8. Disclosure

Every information contained in the report is solely for the purpose of showing another angle. Since it is not investment advice nor a trade recommendation, you must not use the conclusion of the report as the sole reason for your trading and investing activities. Make sure you know how to include the above elements in your trading framework in a way that does not change your methodology.

Data can have many representations and the information presented is but one side which may be incomplete. All back-testing and forward testing results reflect their own time period and not the future.

The information contained in the report are proprietary and only you must use it. If you have to share it, please state the source correctly by referring the page of Coalescence.

Access the Coalescence Report

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Excerpt from Coalescence Report 8th May - 14th May 2022

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